Arab-Israeli clash central

UNLIKE the perception in Washington that the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the only issue in the region, it is central to all concerns, two former US diplomats have said.

David Aaron, a former US deputy national security adviser, and Robert Blackwill, who was deputy assistant to former US president George Bush, said the Arab-Israeli conflict was intricately linked to containing Iran, the stability of the GCC and that of countries supporting the US.

They were taking part in a panel discussion on Sunday moderated by Pulitzer-award winning journalist Karen Elliot and organised by Rand-Qatar Policy Institute (RQPI). The programme marked the Rand Corporation’s 60th anniversary and RQPI’s fifth.

Entitled ‘The New US Administration: Rand perspectives on the likelihood of change in issues and policies affecting the Middle East’, the session saw Elliot listing Iraq, Iran, the Arab-Israeli conflict and Afghanistan as the sore points in her opening remarks.

“The new administration could reassure moderate forces in the region on how the US can still be a friend,” Elliot said.

Aaron said the Middle East would be at the top of the agenda of the next US president, with an emphasis on political reconciliation in Iraq. “Iran will basically determine Iraq’s future. It wants a weak but unified Iraq,” he said.

“Now what I understand is that Senator Obama wants direct talks with Tehran, while saying all the options are on the table, while Senator McCain’s campaign is downplaying the nuclear threats posed by Iran, following the Bush administration’s current line.”

According to him, direct negotiations would create embarrassment for the US as it was in the forefront of pushing for UN sanctions on Iran.

“As for the GCC, they want the US to stop the Iranian threat but not to attack it,” Aaron said.

Blackwill said the next president would instinctively be multilateral.

“You’ll find a good listener in the White House with high priority on diplomacy especially after the last four years have exposed our military constraints,” he said.

“As for staying with Iraq, Obama’s pledge of 16 months is unlikely. There will be a withdrawal early on but it’ll be much slower than he anticipates, as the situation there now is very volatile and fragile,” he noted.

According to Blackwill, convening an international conference on Iraq early should be considered by the new president, but “a lot depends on the quality of diplomacy.”

On Afghanistan, both Blackwill and Aaron said the Taliban were very much alive and increasing the territory they operated in. Co-operation from all neighbours, Pakistan, China, Russia, India, and even Iran should be sought, they suggested.

“Before the end of the first term of the US president we will be negotiating with the Taliban. Because this war can’t be won militarily and bringing them to the table is inevitable.”